Clouds Coming by Sunday
Upper level high pressure has brought unseasonably warm weather to much of California these past few days. Now, the pattern is about to change- with low pressure shifting to a position just off the coastline by Sunday. Saturday will again be a nice day for the most part with south valley highs in the 70s. But clouds should begin to move in by evening and mostly cloudy skies are on the docket for Sunday. Haze is expected to gradually give way by late Sunday to a few sprinkles that could move in from a very weak disturbance in the eastern Pacific. Monday will be dry with a temporary ridge of high pressure pushing through.
But on Tuesday, the long awaited storm we've been talking about for a week will finally come to California. This has been a difficult forecast for computer models that typically provide very good guidance with which meteorologists compose their forecasts. But since the low is cutting off- away from steering flows and the polar jet stream- it has added an element of uncertainty. And I should add that even though all computer models are beginning to converge on a solution- that this system will move through late Tuesday and Wednesday, even that prediction is subject to some lingering uncertainty until the cut-off system definitively moves east.
I've raised the chance for rain Tuesday afternoon to 60% in the south valley and 70% in the mountains. A tropical tap of very moisture air is moving north to coincide with the storm's arrival in Kern County. That should mean higher that expected rainfall totals and much higher snow levels. Once the primary system moves through, a linger weakness of low pressure will hang out to our west. Another system may move through next Saturday with a chance for showers. After that rain maker early next weekend, dry weather is expected with a significant offshore slow leading to another warm and dry weather pattern for the following week.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday weekend everyone !!