A Pleasant Holiday Weekend
As forecast, Thanksgiving was a hazy and mild day. The entire state has enjoyed lovely weather this Thursday and a repeat is expected for Black Friday. More clouds are on the menu for this weekend, but there have been some significant changes in the forecast regarding an anticipated wet weather system late this weekend and early next week. An impulse, travelling across the North Pacific which will bring our chance for rain, is currently south of the Aleutians Islands of Alaska. Computer models have had a difficult time with this feature of late, after confidently predicting a storm to hit late this weekend. Now, as the disturbance is becoming fully formed, it is apparent that the system will cut off in the Eastern Pacific on Sunday and Monday.
Some cloudiness will overspread the state on Sunday with a slight chance for light showers or sprinkles. But the main storm now is expected to remain offshore through much of Tuesday, before coming inland during the afternoon. Models are muddled on this one with no strong consensus among the handful of usually reliable computer models. The best course at this time is to forecast a reduced probability of rain for a wider timeframe- beginning late Sunday and continuing through Thursday of next week. Unfortunately, cut-off low pressure systems are notoriously difficult to predict because they are detached from steering currents like the polar jet stream
Computer models have a hard time with them. Sometimes they get caught in the flow and start to move, becoming more predictable. Other times they just stay out at sea and spin. So confidence is low for next week, other to say there will be a chance for rain much of the week. I'll have to closely watch the movement of this storm, and when it becomes clear that the storm is finally moving confidence will improve.
Again, at this time, the best chance for rain is Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a slight chance for sprinkles on Sunday. Another system is portrayed coming into California next Saturday. Stay tuned..