Hispanics to soon outnumber whites in California
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Hispanics will become the largest ethnic group in the nation's most populous state early next year, the California Department of Finance said Thursday, marking a big milestone in a long-running demographic shift that has already deeply altered the political balance of power, the economy and culture.
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The prediction that Hispanics will equal the number of whites in California by the middle of this year and surpass them in early 2014 was disclosed in Gov. Jerry Brown's budget proposal in early January, but the latest numbers offer a far more detailed portrait of how the shift will unfold across age groups and geographic regions over the next five decades. Whites and Hispanics each currently represent 39 percent of the state's population.
In 2020, Hispanics will account for 40.7 percent of the population and whites will make up 36.6 percent. In 2030, the population will be 43.9 percent Hispanic and 34.1 percent white.
In 2060, Hispanics will make up 48 percent of the population compared to 30 percent white.
Blacks are expected to slip from nearly 6 percent in 2010 to just more than 4 percent by 2060, while the Asian population, now just below 13 percent, may grow slightly.
California becomes only the nation's second state after New Mexico where Hispanics make up the largest racial or ethnic group. Whites currently lack a majority in only two states — Hawaii and New Mexico.
In Texas, Hispanics will likely become the largest group within 10 years, said Mark Lopez, associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center, which studies demographic trends. A long period of time will elapse before another state reaches that milestone, he said.
"It's an important milestone because California and New Mexico are so unique," Lopez said. "California is in a league of its own (because of its size)."
The shift has played out over the last decade as Hispanics filled more elected offices, including two lieutenant governors, the mayor of Los Angeles and important leadership posts in the state Legislature, said Louis DeSipio, a professor of political science and Chicano/Latino studies at University of California, Irvine.
Approval of a 1994 ballot measure to cut services to illegal immigrants was a turning point, prompting many Hispanics to become citizens and register to vote, DeSipio said. Redrawing the congressional map after the 2000 census reinforced their influence at the polls.
Hispanics may take more time to exercise the same influence in politics as they do in culture because those who are not citizens cannot vote, and they are disproportionately young, a group that generally tends to vote less often, DeSipio said.
In 2010, Hispanics were a majority in nine of California's 58 counties; by 2060, that could grow to 17, the finance department reported. Bill Schooling, chief of the department's demographic research unit, said counties with a strong Hispanic presence — like San Bernardino, Riverside and Kern, near Los Angeles — will be much younger than parts of Northern California and other remote areas.
The demographic trends show that California, like other states, will see its median age increase from the current 35 to 42 in 2060 but still be relatively young, thanks largely to Hispanics.
In 2030, there will be 9.6 million Hispanics in the prime working ages of 25 to 64, while whites will account for 7.2 million. By 2060, Hispanics will be the largest group from 25 to 64 by a wide margin — 12.1 million compared to 7.4 million whites.
"Due to California's diversity and because of its role as the primary gateway state for immigration, California will not age as rapidly in the coming 20 years as many other states," the report said.
California's population is expected to hit 50 million in 2049, from about 38 million today, led by steady growth in Southern California. The percentage of women in the state will continue to slightly outnumber the percentage of men, due to longer female life expectancies.
Dowell Myers, a professor of demography and urban planning at the University of Southern California, said the projected growth of Hispanics is slower than earlier state estimates, allowing more time for the state to adjust and providing a "calming effect." The state's overall population is also growing less rapidly than earlier projected.
"We're a state of minorities and we've been a state of minorities since 1999, when whites fell below 50 percent of the population," Myers said.
The report relied on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, California Department of Public Health vital statistics and surveys of county planning experts and regional government councils.
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Highlights of the demographic report released Thursday by the California Department of Finance:
— Within 20 years, California's ethnic composition will be 46.7 percent Hispanic, 30.7 percent white, 13.5 percent Asian, 4.7 percent black and 3.7 percent multiracial; less than 1 percent will be American Indian.
— By 2060, Hispanics will comprise nearly half the state's population, 48 percent.
— California's population will hit 40 million, equivalent to the current population of Argentina, in 2018 or 2019. It is projected to hit 50 million in 2049.
— In 2010, Hispanics were a majority in nine of California's 58 counties; by 2030, that will grow to 13.
— Blacks would slip below 5 percent of the population by 2050.
— By 2060, California will have 13 counties with a population of 1 million or more.
— California's median age will rise from 35 to 42 over the next 50 years, but the state will not age as rapidly as many other states primarily because of immigration.
— Southern California will lead the state's growth over the next half century, adding 8.3 million people by 2060.
I wonder...when the "evil rich" have all left California who will pay for the socialist welfare state it has become? The lecherous, lazy, gimme my government cheese, inhabitants who do nothing to provide for their own welfare? You want a quick lesson on why liberism/socialism/communism always fails regardless of where it is tried? Look at the state of California and then contrast it with the state of Texas.  California is mired in debt and on the verge of bankruptcy while Texas, utilizing capitalism and free market principles, has a booming economy. It really is too bad that so many on the left are too stupid or proud to admit they're fools.
California is a shithole that, with any luck whatsoever, will fall into the ocean and take all the turds that live there with it.
now now people you are right on alot of bases your touching but lets bring up the past before and after DR.MARTIN LUTHER KING. When whites and blacks was fighting each other on freedom issues the whites was ignoring the chinese , mexicans and other ethnics that is in this country today in the past. Whites forgot about the other ethnics due to they were so busy looking at the blacks that the chinese and mexicans and other ethnics were laughing at us. Building businesses , capitalizing off the hatred we had for each other. Hiding in plane site bringing family members and friends on ships and accross the boarder into this country. Now they are here to stay using our own constitution against the americans to stay here. I hate to say it but it must be said now the children of all the whites are paying for the mistakes of leaving the mexicans alone years ago. The past will always repeat it self and thats why alot of whites are leaving california just ask the DMV how many licenses been transferd to other states. Get the news to investigate it and let them tell you how many whites left california or they just might say its to sensitive to investigate to tell all of bakersfield.
When is Ca. going to break off and fall into the ocean?
U.S is finally going to be paid back for all that it has done in the past. Even in 1960(when it was hardly any hispanics,latinos,etc...)I knew that this would happen because African-Americans was going through so much and fighting for freedom for all people and just like the true people they are they stood back and backstab them. Shame be their people. I hope this do not happen in Philadelphia,PA. Â
In Compton a family was attack by Hispanics are they going to be the new kkk but just brown?
Oh, Yea... This is good news!!! Already had next to a impossible time finding a job because I DON'T SPEAK SPANISH!!! Never thought that I would have to learn a foreign language to get a job IN THE UNITED STATES!!!
I saw Gaspar's piece on Mexico having the highest kidnapping rate in the world.  Won't it be just peachy when CA turns into Mexico so we can enjoy high kidnapping rates? It'll be great when CA has murderous, cutthroat drug cartels who murder dozens, mutilate their bodies, then hang them from the Golden Gate Bridge, just like they do in good ole' Mexico.   Actually, CA already is much like Mexico, with a corrupt thuggish government filled with crooks, thieves and thugs of the lowest order.    Nothing wrong with immigration, when the immigrants assimilate and become productive members of society.   Importing Mexico to the US is a bad, bad idea, but the left is filled with insane ideologues who can't be stopped because the media and the Democrat Party are just as corrupt.
not a reason to be proud of it, if we were not the people with the lowest income probably , if we were not the most people depending in food stamps probably, if we were not the most depending in social programs probably, Â if we were not the poorest people in the country probably, so what`s the reason to be celebrating.Â
@carmelo cortez the state needs more like you to voice their opnion. Honest and objective. I bet you are a hard worker and tax-paying(being bled to death if you are here in CA).
Did you mention that 60% of the poor in CA are Hispanic and 54% of CA Hispanics make less than $20,000 per year?  Why is K-BS-X dancing in the streets and celebrating the destruction of the state of CA by turning it into a Third World dump?  All politics folks, 70% vote Demonrat so this will cement a Demonrat supermajority for years to come, as those liberals in Sacramental lord over their serfs in Welfareland.  K-BS-X thinks that's going to make the state better.   The rich whites are getting out after the Demonrats raised their taxes to 13.3%.   Good luck CA, buy a gun (while you can) and learn how to use it, this demographic shift will turn this state into a crime riddled poverty stricken nightmare.
Woo hoo ! Let's celebrate, CA is turning into a Third World trash compactor filled with people who are illiterate in not one, but two languages.    And blacks are vanishing under 5%.    Do you think Gaspar will do a piece on the violent Hispanic gangs who are attacking and killing blacks in Compton and ordering them to leave?  Nah, too politically incorrect.   He's more interested in getting as many Hispanics into CA and signing them up for welfare so Demonrats can rule Sacramental unopposed from now till hell freezes over.   That's the political agenda of K-BS-X.
Yes, CA will be converted into a Third World trash dump like the countries where all these immigrants came from.  Just wondering if whites will have access to affirmative action when they become a minority in the state, because we've heard time and time again from left wing Demonrats that "we need affirmative action to protect minorities from being oppressed by the majority".  Of course that won't happen, as the left defines a minority as "anyone with brown skin", not an actual numerical minority.    On the plus side, racist organizations like La Raza and LaMecha will be rendered irrelevant because their so called "oppression of minorities" will disappear.  They'll have to find some other excuse for underachievment and failure rather than being in the minority, and Gaspar will be more than willing to help them out.
@mocus1 Your statement has a major mistake. You said CA will be converted.... It was a long time ago. It is astounding how the common native-born citizen has been disregarded and forced to pay for all the problems that come with unfettered illegal immigration. They have broken into my car 3 times(while breaking into many cars on the street.They were finally caught.) They have run into my 2012 honda, ( 1 month old) only to say they have no insurance and i should just say it was hit and run. Why do citizens have to pay for the dream act? Let their parents go into hoc like the rest of us. Always this continuous talk of how badly we need them. Ca was doing ok before this influx started 30 years ago. Sad. Â