After a break of several years, the very reliable eastern Pacific phenomenon knows as “El Nino” has developed. Government scientists recently announced that sensors in the equatorial Pacific have indicated warmer than average sea temperatures.

This has been particularly pleasing to me. I have predicted a 2009-2010 El Nino event for literally 12 years. Back in 1997 it occurred to me that the periodicity of El Nino must be closely connected with some other natural stimuli with a similar recurring period. While searching for natural cycles that might mimic the timing of El Nino events, I was drawn to the strong cause and effect relationship of lunar movements and the tides. Then, I theorized that the moon’s orbit might have peculiarities which could be seen in other forms. Indeed, our moon circles the earth in an elliptical orbit- an orbit with a high point (apogee) and a low point (perigee). As it turns out, both of those critical spots in the orbit change each month- they are not constant.

After doing some extensive research into El Nino events since 1950 and matching them against times when the moon was especially low at its perigee point, I discovered a statistical correlation. It was from that finding that I wrote a short study on what later became known as the “Mu Force”. This is a fictitious force that is always directed north. It is equivalent to the angular velocity vector of a gyroscope or a bicycle tire. That fictitious force keeps a bicycle from falling over once the tires start spinning fast. It also is responsible for a spinning quarter that remains upright while spinning quickly. I noted that when the moon was low in its orbit, it must be moving faster and thus the tides must be moving faster around the world as well.

In the end, this means that subtle changes in the moon’s orbit around the earth affect that fictitious force (the Mu Force) which is always directed through the North Pole. Cool upwelling along the western coast of South America ceases for a season as a result. It is not so much that the sea surface temperatures rise, but rather the cooling influences that normally prevail stop. Based on what I analyzed, it was possible for me to predict that El Nino would likely not be a factor through the middle of this decade but would return in the summer to autumn of 2009. I made the forecast in 1997. It was reported in March 1998 in a story on channel 29 and in the Bakersfield Californian. A dry middle decade? Well, we've certainly been in a drought since 2005. It is also noteworthy that a lack of El Nino generally brings about busy Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2005 season will never be forgotten with a record 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes and the infamous Hurricane Katrina.

Good news is that our 3-year drought may soon come to an end in California, something that should be pleasing to everyone. But even more exciting is the assertion that El Nino could be predictable, to some degree, as far into the future as lunar orbit predictions can be made. And there is literally no limit to that. It is interesting to me that the moon might be the key to understanding something that has such a dynamic effect on society. When will the next El Nino be arriving after this new one? Stay tuned.