The prognosis had been dire. Our rainfall prospects appeared grim. But after two above normal months in the 2008-09 cool season, our outlook has improved to serious. Actually there is some cause for cautious optimism.

The ghastly lack of moisture California has dealt with for the past 3 years is not as bad as it could have been, judging from medium range computer model output from only a few weeks ago. February comes to an end this weekend and has thus far performed quite well for a “rainy” month. Indeed, we are in the heart of the rainy season that peaks on March 6th. Thereafter, normal daily precipitation decreases until the middle of June in which no rain typically falls. So, it’s now or never for this water year. Currently in Bakersfield we are running about a quarter inch below normal for the water year, which runs from July 1st through June 30th. This is despite the fact that February is a turning out to be a good rain month and will finish about a half inch above normal, or 141% of average. When this month is combined with last November, which was the first abnormally wet month in 2 ½ years, it helps to turn away a drought disaster.

Our good fortune has been due to persistent low pressure areas in just the right position to give us either a tropical moisture tap or to bring a highly unstable airmass promoting showers and thunderstorms with brief intense rainfall. Both have occurred this month. Taking a look at the current long range guidance one would have to conclude that there is a glimmer of hope. Although today’s snow water content in the southern Sierra is 82% of normal, it was a lot worse in January. A continued drought is likely for the west coast, Texas and the southeastern US. Our situation in Kern County is characterized as a “Severe Drought”. But computer models are showing another chance for significant rain late this coming weekend and likely persisting into next week with additional systems. So during this most important part of the year for both hydrologic and agricultural concerns I remain guardedly optimistic.

Spring is coming early this year. Not only do we turn the clocks forward for Daylight Saving Time earlier than ever (on Sunday March 8th), but the Vernal Equinox seems sooner than it should be as well. Spring begins at 4:44 AM on Friday March 20th. Our calendar used to be based on the proposition that springtime represents a new beginning. For centuries, the Julian calendar set March as the first month of the year. That all changed with the adoption of our current Gregorian calendar in 1752 (for the British colonies in America). Wednesday September 2, 1752 was followed by Thursday September 14, 1752- which resulted in riots by people who wanted their 11 days back. When March was the first month of the year, the months of September through December were named for a Latin prefix that described the sequence of that month. “Sept” referred to the seventh month, “Octo” the eighth, etc. Of course, September is the ninth month today but that was not always the case.

In fact, to account for the 365 ¼ days it took for the earth to orbit the sun, that ¼ day would amount to one full day every 4 years. The day was then appended and that addition would come at the end of the year, which occurred in the last month- February. Hence the 28- or 29-day rhyme we learned in elementary school, regarding February, dates back to when March was the beginning of the year and February the end. Now it all makes sense! But changing the clock to DST while it is still officially winter? I’ll leave that up to you.