It was a chilly start to 2009 with low clouds and fog. Our high was only 42 degrees in Bakersfield and, although not a record low maximum temperature, it hasn’t been this cool during the day since December 21, 2004. In fact, the last time Bakersfield had a colder afternoon high not only did we break a temperature record but most people remember that day for the 4 inches of snow that fell. It was January 25, 1999, a date that will live in the minds of resident in the south valley. High temperatures in the low 40s are exceedingly rare, as you can see.

Rainfall in 2008 was also somewhat rare. We ended the calendar year with 3.24” of precipitation which is exactly half of normal. The highest temperature of the year was 111 degrees and the lowest 31. Overall the year was 1 degree warmer than normal. So, it was officially warmer and drier than average 2008 in Bakersfield. And even though November ended up with above average rainfall (1.06”), it proved to be the only month in 2008 that was exceedingly wet. December’s total of .64” was just another drier than normal tally. It now appears that the dry and mild trend will persist into early 2009. There are indications that waters in the equatorial Pacific are cooling somewhat and a weak La Nina pattern may be developing. This would confirm the present scenario of very heavy rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest and only spotty rainfall in California, which is typical for a La Nina episode. The first snow survey of the season in the Sierra measured about 75% of normal snow cover. It would have been even worse if November and early December had not delivered a few significant storms.

The long range outlook is still bleak with the storm track holding far to our north. In the next couple of weeks through the middle of the month, computer models are re-building the upper level ridge position over the west. Despite a few light showers that may dot the landscape Friday and early Saturday, it looks dry. Temperatures have been cool and an upper ridge (which is a mountain of warm air) may turn out to perpetuate our cool weather here on the valley floor. Why is that? Well, at this time of year warm air aloft from the upper ridge forms a strong inversion layer which effectively vertically seals the lower elevations with cool air. This orientation makes for fog, afternoon haze and poor air quality. When cold air settles in to the central valley of California it becomes implacable- nothing can dislodge it. Such has been the case this week. Only a strong cold front from the north or sweeping southerly winds ahead of deep low pressure can do the trick.

So as we progress through January you can expect more cool conditions thanks to persistent low stratus cloudiness with occasional fog. This is, after all, the heart of the Tule fog season. I wish I could encourage everyone with a forecast for heavy rainfall and lots of snow in the Sierra. That does not appear likely. But perhaps February and/or March can deliver a nice surprise and make this a happy New Year, weather wise.