Weather Blog
October ebbs and November comes marching in with shorter days and generally cooler temperatures. At least that is usually the way it works. However, a weak area of high pressure is slated to overspread Kern County and most of the state this “Fall Back” weekend. That means temperatures will be rising into the mid 70s making for a very pleasant couple of days. Early November is looking particularly nice with highs near 80 through about Wednesday. But more storms are sure to invade our region in the months to come with the advent of El Nino. Above normal storminess is forecast in the west, especially January through March. I have been developing a Storm Index for California that quantifies the damage potential of storms affecting large areas. This involves looking back at past storms and their impact as well as objective techniques to estimate how powerful a weather system is by virtue of only two parameters- wind and rainfall. You may remember our first significant storm of the season that hit the state on October 13th and 14th. It was dubbed “Storm Poseidon”, with any subsequent storms that rate high enough to receive a Greek god’s name. But what is that magic threshold? How strong must the winds be and how much precipitation must a Pacific storm deliver to be thus classified? Borrowing from the Bay Area Storm Index (BASI) concept developed by Jan Null to quantify storm damage potential in the San Francisco region, I have modified the evaluation process to encompass a broader and more precise estimation of impact that can be both forecast and observed. My technique, called the California Storm Index (CSI), is calculated using 5 variables. They are: Average wind velocity, Peak gust velocity, Average 3-hour rainfall, Maximum 3-hour rainfall, and finally the 3-hour Flash Flood Guidance (which is the amount of rainfall required to produce flooding, based on current ground saturation). Additionally, none of this is triggered until the total area affected by an impending storm covers at least 50,000 square miles and the acutely affected portions of the state exceed 5,000 square miles. So, not every Tom, Dick or Harry low pressure system is graded on its strength. Finally, the CSI comes in 2 parts: Wind Damage Potential and Rainfall Damage Potential. Big storms are evaluated using empirical equations I’ve authored and the output should describe how damaging the wind, rainfall or combination of both will be. The damage potential calculation utilizes exponential factors, so when a storm produces particularly strong weather the CSI values will be in proper perspective. That magic number is 35. In the days to come I will be featuring wind and rain forecasts of big storms with reference to that number. Wind or rainfall values of 35 bring about “Class 1 Damage Potential”. Additional increments of 35 raise the stakes one class at a time, i.e. a CSI of 70 is Class 2, CSI of 105 is Class 3, etc. I will publish definitions for each progressive wind and rain damage potential class in a future blog. BTW, Storm Poseidon rated a Wind Index of 48 (Class 1 Wind Damage Potential) and a Rainfall Index of 91 (Class 2 Rainfall Damage Potential). So let the storms come and be evaluated. It’s not so much about which storm takes home the gold, but rather how prepared Californians are for fierce winter storms. After 3 years of drought, El Nino rains will bring much anticipated relief but with a calculated collateral downside. The CSI is being developed to better measure Mother Nature’s nasty side. 
The October 13th Pacific storm that hammered California is awash in superlatives. Records fell by the wayside in most areas north and south of Kern County for a storm so early in the rainy season. But the strength of this powerful former super typhoon was precisely the reason many parts of Kern County received next to nothing. Indeed the rule of thumb is “The stronger the storm, the LESS rain we get in Bakersfield”. Read more »
Wonderful October weather has supplanted the seemingly endless heat of summer. Overnight lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in the 70s and 80s are welcomed relief from the triple digits of September. Read more »
Very hot weather has come to Kern County and all of southern California. Santa Ana winds are the extremely hot and dry winds that affect this area beginning about this time of the year. Read more »
The first instant of autumn occurs at 2:18 Tuesday afternoon September 22nd this year. The very next day marks the start of our Kern County Fair. Funny, but not a year goes by when there isn’t at least one flourish of hot weather to coincide with that annual festival at Ming and Union. Read more »
After a break of several years, the very reliable eastern Pacific phenomenon knows as “El Nino” has developed. Government scientists recently announced that sensors in the equatorial Pacific have indicated warmer than average sea temperatures. Read more »
Rarely have we seen such dramatic temperature swings as that witnessed during April 2009. Following a high temperature of 99 yesterday, tying the record for the date, we will be on a slide back to below normal readings by week’s end. Read more »
After a cool winter in Kern County, springtime is about to bud. Actually, quite a bit of budding has already occurred in the south valley with flowers making their appearance between the valley floor and about the 3,000 foot level in our mountains. It promises to be a beautiful floral season. Read more »
The prognosis had been dire. Our rainfall prospects appeared grim. But after two above normal months in the 2008-09 cool season, our outlook has improved to serious. Actually there is some cause for cautious optimism. Read more » 
Temperatures have been pretty mild lately in California . That is quite the understatement. A day didn't go by over the past work week in which a slough of high temperature records did not fall under the weight of a massive high pressure ridge. Twice, Santa Ana reached or exceeded 90 degrees. LA and Long Beach have enjoyed mid to upper 80 degree weather every day this second week of January. Read more »
It was a chilly start to 2009 with low clouds and fog. Our high was only 42 degrees in Bakersfield and, although not a record low maximum temperature, it hasn’t been this cool during the day since December 21, 2004. In fact, the last time Bakersfield had a colder afternoon high not only did we break a temperature record but most people remember that day for the 4 inches of snow that fell. It was January 25, 1999, a date that will live in the minds of resident in the south valley. High temperatures in the low 40s are exceedingly rare, as you can see. Read more »
California is known for its Mediterranean climate. Among the things that draw people to this land, weather is usually found at the top of the list. While perpetual sunshine, palm trees and gentle breezes headline the image of our state, reality becomes quite different this time of year. Read more »
This has been an especially wet month in Bakersfield and Kern County. To date, we’ve seen 8 rain days in a month that typically only experiences 4. Read more »
Every year in September, hunting season is inaugurated by the congregation of outdoorsmen who excitedly don their special jacket, head for the hills with a gun and the hope of bagging a trophy deer or elk. They must have a license. But no license is required for the start of fog season, and today is that day. Read more »
Ah, for that earthy smell just after a gentle rain. A cool and cloudy day with higher humidity. But up till now we have been bone dry with warm and hazy weather to compliment our high fire danger. Will it ever rain? Read more »
If it has been fairly warm and dry this year, 2008 is certainly is not the warmest. The warmest period of time for both Kern County and much of the nation occurred in the mid 1930s dust bowl. The cold extreme, however, happened exactly 100 years ago. Read more »
It usually takes time for summer to sing its swan song in central California, but that song has now been sung. A deep low pressure area is has arrived with some of the coolest weather of the season so far. Read more »
Summer is holding on with its fingernails as September begins to fade into October. Triple digit temperatures have persisted in the south end of the valley. But will moisture from the heavens ever return to the San Joaquin Valley? Of course it will, but soon enough? Read more »
The summers in central California are long and particularly hot. This summer has featured 5 separate heat waves in Bakersfield. Other areas, such as the south end of the valley and the eastern Kern County desert, have seen more. Read more »
Hurricanes spin counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere due to the Earth's rotation and Coriolis Force.
Low pressure is due to areas of rising air, which then start to spin counter-clockwise due to the Coriolis Force. High pressure is tied to sinking air, which the Coriolis Force turns the air clockwise. But let's say there's a hurricane off the coast of Mexico, and then it roars south toward South America where they would spin the other way. This is sort of like the axiom of what happens if you strap a piece of buttered toast to a cat's back, which way would point down? (And please don't test this at home.) Read more » 
Photos from around the region after Hurricane Ike devastated parts of the Gulf Coast. Read more »
Hurricane Gustav had been milling around the Caribbean for several days with only a vague threat for the northern Gulf coast. The menacing storm appeared potentially devastating to an area with memories of Katrina still fresh almost exactly 3 years later. But Gustav would prove to be a routine hurricane, not the “mother of all”. Read more »This fourth weekend in August looks to be sunny and hot. Not too surprising for central California during the second half of summer. While “the Sunshine State” is drowning in 15 to 30 inches of rainfall from Tropical Storm Fay, it is nothing to go many months without a drop of rain in Bakersfield. California is the real sunshine state for much of the year. Average annual precipitation for the southern San Joaquin valley of California is about 6 and a half inches. It has taken 5 and a half years (since February 2003) to collect 30 inches of rain in this relatively dry part of the country, something eastern Florida seems to have accomplished in less than 5 days. Read more »
The weather has been wonderful recently. Bakersfield enjoyed high temperatures of 88 and 87 degrees, respectively on Tuesday and Wednesday. So, is this it? Has summer come to a pre-mature end? Not quite. Read more »
It has been a lazy few days with kids enjoying the last few moments of vacation, temperatures soaring into the triple digits and a lightning bonanza in the southwestern sky early Friday morning. August in Bakersfield usually features these things as residents begin to tire of the relentless day after day heat. Average high temperatures slip from the upper 90s to the mid 90s and potential daylight is trimmed by about an hour from almost 14 hours to less then 13 hours per day. Read more »
The Summer Olympics are here! To what lengths will our athletes aspire? How far will they push their bodies? How high might the pollution levels get? There are answers to all those questions, but I will only take a stab at the last one. Read more » |
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November 7, 2009
A 36-year-veteran of forecasting and meteorology, Miles has worked throughout the country, has flown into hurricanes and is a passionate tornado chaser.
